If you followed my free baseball picks, you would have noticed that the Cincinnati Reds were my handicapping cryptonite. It seemed that whenever I picked them to win, they would lose. I was 8-14 (-6 units) betting on them in 2005. The Reds typified the kind of a team an astute handicapper would want to bet on given the right situation. 1) They are a bad team. 2) The public does not like betting on them. 3) They have poor pitching to drive up their odds. 4) They have decent hitting. 5) Their horrible road record masked the fact that they were actually a decent team to bet on at home. In 2006, they were 31-50 (-11 units) on the road but were 42-39 (+3 units) at home. The disparity was large so we tried to pick our spots betting on these Reds at home. We did not do a good job with these Reds but we had great success with other teams using the same methodology. (Read our article on the Devilrays) The problem with the Reds is that they have horrible pitching from their starting rotation to their bullpen. We liked it in some sense because it gives us great odds. The Reds were a great team to bet the Overs in 2005. In their home games, the average total score was 11.2 runs in 2005. Their average total score on the road was only 9.9 points. When people think about a lot of runs being scored, they think about the Rockies at home, they do not always think about the Reds. Until they do, we will keep feasting their home overs whenever we find the right spots. |
